Compass Bowl Odds: Southern Methodist Mustangs vs. Pittsburgh Panthers

The Southern Methodist Mustangs and the Pittsburgh Panthers will fight on January 7 at Legion Field in the BBVA Compass Bowl.

Back in the old days, a team received a bowl invitation as a reward for an outstanding season. Not any more.

In fact, if we established the criteria that any team must (a) own a winning record overall and (b) own a winning record in its own conference, 21 of the 70 schools that qualifi ed for post-season play this year would NOT have made the cut.

One of those teams staying home would be 6-6 Pittsburgh, a program dealing with its third head coaching change in less than a year (Michael Haywood, who replaced Dave Wannstedt, never coached a game before getting canned, and current HC Todd Graham has already accepted the head job at Arizona State for 2012).

Thus, DC Keith Patterson will lead the Panthers today before new head coach Paul Chryst moves over from Wisconsin.

Similarly, there was some concern in Dallas that SMU coach June Jones was sniffi ng around for a better job but his top option – Texas A&M – went for Houston’s Kevin Sumlin, so JJ will be staying put for the time being.

The Mustangs busted out of the stall in 2011 with a 5-1 SU start but quickly headed to the glue factory with an awful 2-4 SU and 0-6 ATS finish.

However, we think that losing streak brings plenty of value to the 18-returning starter ponies, a team that was embarrassed by Army as 7.5-point chalk in last year’s Armed Forces Bowl.

We also unearthed more than a few negative trends for Graham but those get tossed into the trash following the recent coaching carousel high-jinks. SMU hasn’t done well SU against bowlers the last three seasons (5-14) but they’re catching 5-6 points here and our database informs us that the dog is 6-0 SU and ATS of late in Mustangs’ bowl games.

That’s enough ammo for us considering the Panthers’ players are likely in a state of emotional turmoil. Jones earns at least one week of his inflated salary by leading his ponies to the upset here.

Sportsbooks currently have the Panthers listed as 5½-point favorites versus the Mustangs, while the game's total is sitting at 49.

College Football Betting: Crimson Tide Look To Avenge Lone Loss on Biggest Stage

The Alabama Crimson Tide missed its chance at the No. 1 ranking when they missed three field goal opportunities against the top-ranked LSU Tigers in their only loss of the season. Head coach Nick Saban and his team will get the opportunity to earn some revenge and make everybody forget about that loss if they can capitalize in a rematch against LSU in this year’s Allstate BCS Championship game as slight sports betting underdogs.

Allstate BCS Championship Game

Alabama Crimson Tide vs. LSU Tigers

Monday January 9, 2012 – 8:30 PM ET

Mercedes Benz Superdome, New Orleans, Louisiana

College Football Betting Line: LSU Tigers – 1

The fact that the difference between these two programs this season came down to a couple of missed field goals is enough to warrant a rematch on the biggest stage. The Tigers had the tougher schedule and came out on top in the end, but it will be all for none if they can’t go 2-for-2 against the Tide this season.

College Football Betting Preview: Alabama

Saban understood the first time around that if his team was going to have any chance against a team as talented as LSU, it would come down to a strong effort on defense to keep it close until the end. The Alabama defense lived up to expectations by holding a Tigers’ offense that averaged 38.5 points per game during the regular season to just a pair of field goals in regulation, but their own special teams didn’t get the job done when they had the chance to win it with a field goal of their own. If the Tide are going to avenge that loss, they will need to get the same intensity from their defense, and capitalize on the opportunities they have on the other side of the ball in a game that could in which the line is so close according to the pay head bookies.

College Football Betting Preview: LSU

The only team that finished with a higher ranked defense than LSU during the regular season was Alabama, so head coach Les Miles understands full well that beating them a second consecutive time in the same season will come down to capitalizing on opportunities. The quarterback tandem of Jordan Jefferson and Jarrett Lee combined for nearly 2,000 passing yards and 20 touchdowns while splitting time, but the focus for both will be on protecting the football. The running back tandem of Michael Ford and Spencer Ware will be relied on even more to move the chains, and how well they do against the Tide’s stingy defense will be a good indicator of how this game ends up.

College Football Betting Preview: Outlook & Pick

Alabama will have all hands on deck as it shoots for a second national title in three years, and as long as they are able to capitalize on their opportunities this time around there is no reason to think they won’t be able to get the job done. Rarely does a top-ranked team lose twice to the same opponent in the same year, and it won’t happen in this situation with the SEC bound to take home the NCAAF football national title once again regardless of the outcome.

Gambling Advisor blog Pick: Alabama Crimson Tide + 1

Cotton Bowl Betting Odds: Kansas State Wildcats vs. Arkansas Razorbacks

The Kansas State Wildcats and the Arkansas Razorbacks will meet on January 4 and battle at Cowboys Stadium in the AT&T Cotton Bowl.

We’ll admit we’re mystified by the enigma known as Kansas State. Nearly every week this betting season, we watched the No. 8 Wildcats get chased up and down the field the entire game – only to emerge with the SU win AND pointspread cover.

In fact, we don’t even think Bill Snyder himself could explain to us how his team went just 3-9 ‘In The Stats’ (0-7 ITS versus fellow bowlers this season) but finished 10-2 SU and 9-2 ATS! On paper, that would make K-State the phoniest 10-win team in the land, especially with the ‘Cats allowing 55 YPG more than they gained his campaign.

Thus, it comes as no surprise to learn the only common opponent faced by Arkansas and KSU this betting season (Texas A&M) found the ‘Cats on the short end of a 193 net yardage deficit.

And when we take a look at recent ATS history for both squads, we start to get sweaty palms and an increased heart rate just thinking about a wager on the Hogs.

For starters, Big 12 bowlers off a win are just 3-17 ATS versus an opponent off a SU and ATS loss and Big 12 bowl dogs are a dead-on-the-slab 0-7 ATS when squaring off with the SEC.

But as soon as we envision snapping the rubber band against these imposters, our betting database warns us that Arkansas owns a few embarrassing stats of its own.

The Razorbacks have been led to the meat processing plant in recent bowl appearances, going 4-14 SU and ATS in the post-season since – including 0-9 ATS versus a foe off consecutive wins.

And Boss Hog himself, Bobby Petrino, has brought home the ATS bacon just ONCE in six trips to the alleys. Even so, we’ll take note of Arky’s outstanding 8-2 ATS success against the Big 12 and offer up a lean to the No. 6 Pigs. Lay it if you play it.

Sportsbooks currently have the Razorbacks listed as 7½-point favorites versus the Wildcats, while the game's total is sitting at 64.

NFL Betting: Saints Aim to Avoid Another Playoff Upset

NFL fans and betting players alike have watched Drew Brees and the New Orleans Saints set a slew of records this season, but they’ll be out to erase last year’s playoff upset at the hands of Seattle when they host Detroit for the second time in a month.

Lions Saints Odds – Saturday, 8:00 PM ET

The Lions (10-5) reached the playoffs for the first time since 1999, and sportsbook reviews of their season would point towards their incredible duo in the passing game, quarterback Matt Stafford and receiver Calvin Johnson, as the main reason for their success. Detroit isn’t a very good running team, so they lean on their stars in the aerial attack, although you can add in players like Nate Burleson, Titus Young and Brandon Pettigrew. The defense, however, has struggled over the second half of the season and a good price per head player would blame it on penalties (the Lions have the third-most penalties in the league) and a knee injury suffered by safety Louis Delmas, which really hurt their pass defense.

The Saints (13-3) won the NFC South on the back of Brees, who set the record for most passing yards in a season, and he is the leader of an offense that has scored more points than everyone but Green Bay. They also have Darren Sproles, who set the record for most all-purpose yards in a season, a crew of receivers and a better rushing attack than you expect. The defense bends, but doesn’t break and have played very well down the stretch. Players that use betting sports news picks systems will remember the Saints’ loss in Seattle during last season’s wild-card round, which ended their Super Bowl title defense, and you know that the Saints remember it as well. That is why they wanted to get homefield advantage as they’re 8-0 SU and ATS in the Superdome.

That is also why the Saints are 10.5-point favorites at home for this game, and you also have to consider that the Lions fell 31-17 in New Orleans last month. Brees and Stafford both had excellent games, but Brees got the edge for no picks and three touchdowns, while Stafford had more yards, but only one touchdown and he was picked off. The Lions also shot themselves in the foot with 11 penalties, and they can’t afford to give the Saints extra chances, especially when Brees is on the field. The Saints also did a great job on Johnson, who had just six catches for 69 yards and they’ll need a similar performance, especially after Johnson racked up 244 yards against Green Bay in the regular-season finale. However, New Orleans is just too deep, too smart and they’re at home, so they should be able to cover the spread in these NFL betting lines.